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3Q25resultsinlinewithourexpectationsXianheCo.,Ltd.announcedits3Q25results:revenuerose
15.5%YoYtoRmb3.07bn,netprofitattributabletoshareholdersgrew13.86%YoYtoRmb304mn,andrecurringnetprofitattributabletoshareholdersincreased1.45%YoY(mainlyduetogovernmentsubsidies)toRmb247mn.Thefirm’s3Q25resultswereinlinewithourexpectations.
Comments:1)Steadygrowthinpaperproductionandsales
volume.Weestimatethefirm’spaperproductionandsalesvolumeat350,000-400,000tin3Q25,withspecialtypaperoutputrisingmorethan25%YoYto300,000-350,000t,drivenbynewproductionbasesinGuangxiandHubei.
2)Self-producedpulpboostedprofit.Asof3Q25,thefirm
announcedthecompletionofitsPhaseIprojectsinHubeiandGuangxi,withahighproportionofintegratedpulpandpaperproduction.Weestimatethatthefirmsoldabout80,000tofpulpinthesetworegionsduring3Q25,contributingtoprofitgrowth.
3)Netprofitpertonneimproveddespiteheadwinds.We
estimatethatthefirm’snetprofitpertonneincreasedbyaboutRmb100QoQin3Q25.WebelievepaperpriceswillremainunderpressureQoQamidweaksupply-demandconditions.WeattributetheQoQimprovementinprofitpertonnetolower-pricedpulpandtheincreaseduseofself-producedpulp.
4)Xiawang’sprofitremainedsolid.In3Q25,investment
incomereachedRmb53mn.WeestimatethatXiawang’soutputandsalesvolumeremainedstableataround80,000tduringthequarter,withnetprofitpertonneexceedingRmb1,000.5)Highcapex.In1-3Q25,netoperatingcashflowrose105%YoYtoRmb919mn,whilecapexreachedRmb1.40bnandthegearingratiostoodat66%.ThefirmpreviouslyannouncedaplantoraiseuptoRmb3bnviaaprivateplacementtofundPhaseIIconstructionoftheSanjiangkouNewAreaprojectinGuangxi.Wesuggestmonitoringthefirm’sfundraisingprogress.
TrendstowatchPulp-paperintegrationtakingshape;watchcostofself-
producedpulp.Since2024,thefirmhasacceleratedtheconstructionofitsproductionbasesinGuangxiandHubei,completingthePhaseIproject.Itsadvantagesinpulp-paperintegrationhavebeguntocontributeincrementalprofit.2025willbeakeyyearforthefirmtoexpandproductioncapacityandcapex,andweexpectfull-yearoutputandsalesvolumetogrowmorethan25%YoY.Goingforward,thefirmwillfocusprimarilyonPhaseIIprojectsinGuangxiandHubei,aswellasthebamboopulpprojectinSichuan,withcapexlikelytoremainhigh.Weareoptimisticthatthefirmwillfurtherstrengthencostefficiencyalongtheindustrychainbyexpandingproductcategories,increasingcapacity,andconsolidatingitsleadingposition.Meanwhile,wesuggestpayingattentiontothecostcontrolofself-producedpulp,asdomesticcapacityexpansionhasacceleratedinrecentyears.
Financialsandvaluation
Wekeepour2025-2026eearningsforecastunchanged.Thestockistradingat14x2025eand12.2x2026eP/E.WemaintainanOUTPERFORMratingandatargetpriceofRmb25,implying15.3x2025eand13.3x2026eP/E,offering9%upside.
Risks
Disappointingdemand;sharper-than-expectedfluctuationsinpulpprices;higher-than-expectednewsupply.
【免责声明】本文仅代表第三方观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。 （
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